Towards the Digital Age

The irrelephant man now available on Twitter!
(That is as soon as I work out how to use it.)
And if anyone knows how to add it my profile drop us a line
@lewin_e

The silly season

As the various football codes kick off in the coming weeks, it is an exciting time for football pundits across the country. The person on the train next to you tell you the Tigers are dead certs, while the bloke in the pub swears that the Bulldogs are good things this year. Some lucky people are even paid to espouse their supposedly well researched predictions.

It's obvious who the 2012 premiers are.

So from this quagmire of wet tea leaves, chicken entrails and old sheep bones comes this startling piece of analysis from well-respected AFL journalist Rohan Connolly of The Age in Melbourne.  He’s crunched the numbers, removed the outliers and plotted the bell curve to come up with his prediction for the coming season. I won't tell what he says, you’ll have to find out here, but I’m fascinated by this apparent magic number for ages and games required for premiership success. Especially considering that the 2011 premiers Geelong won the flag with the oldest list for 67 years, while the year before Collingwood prevailed with one of the youngest lists of modern times.

A closer look at the stats seems to suggest (to my un-mathematical eye) there is no real difference between AFL teams in terms of experience and age. With the exception of the two foundation teams, Gold Coast and GWS and a team turning over a large amount of its playing list (the Brisbane Lions) your average player for any team is just over 23 and has played just over 50 games. Not enough to predict your top eight from these stats. You probably couldn’t even order last year’s final standings from them.

This is of course not to say that any other code is exempt from ridiculous predictions. The NRL doesn’t go in for analysis based on numbers (possibly a legacy of too many high hits), but seems to love predictions based on vague, if well meaning, clichés. And if anyone knows what is going on in the A-League these days, they should contact Les for a place on The World Game team.

That all being said, Rohan Connolly may turn out to be completely accurate in his analysis, and I will have egg all over my face. The team he selected probably won’t surprise many AFL fans, and in explanation to non-AFL’ers out there, he picked a pretty good team which most likely would be in contention regardless of it's makeup.

Now who am I you say, to pontificate from upon high, casting aspersions from the relative safety of a blog. Well I’m glad you asked, for I myself am about to join the masses consulting the Ouija boards and performing rain dances to bring my own ill informed predictions, as well as talking points you can use to sound like you know your AFL. These will be appearing on this very blog closer to the start of the AFL season (now how’s that for sizzle and dangle).

*One quick note, if anyone can find any other predictions based on flimsy premises, I’d love to see them.

Gillard faces new fight - update

In a truly bizarre case of life imitating art, reports have emerged that outgoing Sports Minister Mark Arbib has previously sounded out a former Labor leader to replace him in the Senate. Not Bob Hawke, but former NSW premier Bob Carr. This is dizzy stuff, folks.


Full story here 

Gillard faces new fight

So soon after fighting off one former leader in one of the most potentially party-wrecking leadership spills in recent history, it appears the Prime Minister Julia Gillard may have to run the leadership gauntlet once more, again against a popular former leader of the Australian Labor Party.

But this time, the challenger may be none other than former Prime Minister Bob Hawke, one of if not the most popular long term Labor Prime Ministers. Mr Hawke, 82, a self confessed larrikin and recovering alcoholic, is buoyed by the wave of public sentiment following his latest public appearances and is, according to sources, considering making a comeback.

“He wouldn’t be the first relic of the 80’s to attempt a comeback,” said one source, who could not be named. “Van Halen’s got a new album out, It’s a Knockout and Hey Hey [It’s Saturday] have been on TV and there have been numerous sightings of shoulder pads and leg warmers around town. In some areas, the mullet haircut is still as popular as it was in its back in the 80’s.”

Giving further evidence to the idea of a Hawke comeback was an alleged meeting between Blanche d’Alpuget, Hawke’s spouse and biographer, and out-going Minister for Sport Mark Arbib in a Canberra restaurant. Arbib, who resigned his post as minister on Monday as a “gesture of goodwill” is known as one of Labor Party’s most recognisable faceless men.  He made no mention of giving up this role in his resignation speech.

“They certainly seemed to be have a very frank discussion,” said one onlooker. “It may have been about Bob’s options. Mind you, it could also have been about what they were going to eat if anything, where they were was hardly a temple of gastronomy.”

One of Hawke’s options is to take up the Senate place vacated by Senator Arbib on Monday. As a member of the ALP and a resident of New South Wales he is eligible to serve in that capacity, and although he cannot become the Prime Minister from the Senate, he can follow the precedent set by John Gorton in 1968. Gorton, who won leadership of the Liberal party while a senator, then contested and won the by-election for the seat of Higgins in Victoria, thus becoming the 19^th Prime Minister of Australia. The main stumbling block to this however, is the demand of the Federal Labor government to have input into the nomination of the new senator, and it appears unlikely the Ms Gillard will approve a senator desirous of he position as Prime Minister.

A more likely option for Team Hawke, according to an insider, is to contest one of the numerous by-elections that may appear following the Gillard government “re-shuffle” following her resounding victory over Kevin Rudd on Monday. “After being shifted from Cars and Manufacturing Ministry, to being responsible for roundabouts and finger painting, some of Kevin’s supporters may see the writing on the wall and get out altogether. Then it’ll be Bobby’s time to shine.”

Whatever route Hawke intends to take to get into Parliament, his means of winning the leadership spill are clear, if somewhat unconventional. It is believed that he intends to challenge Ms Gillard to a drinking competition, so confident is he in his ability to drink his opponents “under the backbench.” Hawke is of course famous for his world record of consuming 2 ½ pints (1.4 litres) of lager in eleven seconds, and as a result the potential leadership face-off is already being dubbed “Yard glasses at dawn.”

It looks like Julia Gillard has a real fight on her hands this time.