Contenders or Pretenders?

The 2012 AFL season is one of the most open in recent years, certainly the most open this decade. While this has no doubt breathed new life into a competition that has for the last few years been slightly predictable, it has also given rise to a new generation of what is known as April contenders. For those not familiar with the concept, the April contender is a team that, either by the media, bookies or themselves, has been anointed as a favourite for the premiership. At the season’s start that favourite was Hawthorn and over the course of just six rounds a plethora of other teams has jostled to grab that mantle. Perhaps what is needed is to take a step back and have a look at whether these teams’ credentials are genuine, or whether these teams are in fact April pretenders.

It's not all going to plan for the Hawks

Despite not making it to the big dance last year, Hawthorn was probably the second best team of season 2011. Therefore they were a logical choice for punters, especially following the retirements of a number of Geelong stars from its premiership team. Victory over Collingwood in the first round only served to confirm their favouritism for the flag in 2012. However with a 3-3 record after six rounds, they have had to relinquish that claim to favouritism. The Hawks have a huge reliance on two players, Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli, who although are two of the most freakishly gifted players in the AFL, are at best somewhat spasmodic. Hawthorn look brilliant when those two are on, but look pretty average when they are not. Classic girl with the curl syndrome. Status: Contenders, but behind the eight ball.

The Hawks passed flag favouritism onto Carlton after their victory over the Magpies in round three. The Blues responded with tepid performances against Essendon, Fremantle and the Giants, obviously finding the spotlight a bit too bright for the moment. But with only one loss from its opening six games it would be remarkable if the Blues did not make the finals and it’s hard to find a reason why they should not seriously challenge for a top four finish. It has taken a while, but perhaps Carlton, a few years after its claim, is finally coming. Status: Contender.

The only team to beat the Blues this season is Essendon. They have vaulted themselves into contender status with a 5-1 start to the season. The Dons fans are up and about, but I’m still a bit sceptical. The Bombers haven’t been super impressive other than in their win against Carlton, and have had a reasonably easy draw playing three of the bottom four teams from last year. This week’s match against the undefeated Eagles will be a better examination of their form. It’s also worth considering their lengthening injury list and also the way they faded late last season after a similar blistering start. Status: Pretender.

Does this ruin Sydney's chances?

Until last round, Sydney was one of the competition’s undefeated teams with their earlier win over Hawthorn in Tasmania seeming to stamp them as challengers this year. Boasting one of the AFL’s most improved players, Josh Kennedy, and one of the game’s all-time greats in rare form, the Swans were flying (I apologise for that). However, an injury to Adam Goodes exposed some real deficiencies up forward for the Swans, and with the injury likely to keep him out for much of the middle section of the season, it’s hard to see the Swans maintaining their form. Also the Swans have an awful record at the MCG, with just one win from their last 14 starts, something they will have to dramatically rectify if they are to be a threat in September. Status: Pretender.

One team that is generating a lot of buzz, especially in Adelaide, is the Crows. Last weeks win over Sydney has suddenly caused a raise in the profile and expectations of Adelaide, particularly on the eastern seaboard. With a dream draw and a genuine home ground advantage the Crows should challenge for the top four, although whether they are one of the top four most talented teams in the AFL is another question. Their midfield is young and as yet have not strung together a full consistent season, neither has their two tall targets up forward, Kurt Tippett and Taylor Walker. Their defence is also a bit of a concern, and will get a thorough test when they go up against teams with dangerous talls, such as West Coast or Geelong. Status: Pretender, contender in a few years.

West Coast shapes as the team
to beat this season

The last three teams that must be mentioned are the other top four teams from 2011. There is little doubt that West Coast is a legitimate contender, as the only undefeated team in the competition. They appear unfazed by a number of injuries to key players and are nearly unbeatable at home, with or without umpire assistance. A top four finish ensures a home final, which would just about ensure a ticket to the big dance for the Eagles. Of last year’s grand finalists, I’m reserving my judgment. Both are just one game out of the top four, but without either playing anywhere near their best of the last few seasons. The Magpies are grappling with a number of key injuries, not to mention a new coach, while Geelong appear finally to be slowing down due to retirements and an ageing list. While it’s unlikely they will both make the top four, they will definitely have a say in the make up of the finals and my prediction is there will be a time this season when one of them is considered a real chance for the premiership.

Who can say how the season will pan out, but one thing that is for sure is that if I sat down to write this same time next week, it would be a different set of April contenders and pretenders.

Is public transport killing us?

Australia is one of the fattest nations on earth. Although the position in the world has varied form study to study (some have previously ranked Australia at No. 1), with nearly two-thirds of the population classified as overweight or obese there is no doubt that obesity is a serious health and societal issue. Another thing, apart from our waistlines, that has expanded rapidly is public transport usage, with patronage growing at its fastest rate since the Second World War. Is public transport, and in particular poor public transport, therefore leading to an unhealthier Australia? It may seem a long bow to draw, but the idea may not be as crazy as it sounds.

One of the health benefits of catching public transport is the walk to and from the station or stop. Imagine how much healthier Australia as a nation would be if a part of people’s daily routine were the four walks: to the station, to work/school, back to station and then back home. That’s almost your daily exercise right there. Unfortunately, the poor quality of public transport means that it is not a viable option for many, restricting them to the unparalleled joys of peak-hour, which has its own inherent health risks. So not only are people potentially not losing weight by walking to catch public transport, they are then losing time in gridlock that could otherwise be used going to the gym.

Of course once you catch your train or bus or tram another problem arises, the availability of junk food close to or at major transport hubs. Take Flinders Street station. In addition to the platform vendors and in-station convenience stores, within a one block radius of the station there are three 7-Elevens, two McDonalds, a KFC, Hungry Jacks, Grill’d, a Lord of the Fries, and a hot dog store, just to name a few. This cannot be healthy, especially given the number of school children who pass through Flinders Street everyday. If their only option for a post- (or even pre) school snack is a choice between junk and junk, there really isn’t much choice at all. And with the number of commuters increasing, it’s a fair chance that a number of those commuters’ waistlines are also increasing due to the amazing concentration of fast food near transport.

Take last night as an example. Melbourne dished up a pre-winter special yesterday, biting wind, showers and temperatures more suited to mid-July rather than the start of May. Not a great weather to wait for a train that ended up being 20 minutes late. So what do cold, frustrated and hungry commuters do at 7pm on a Thursday night? Have a bite of an apple? Some trail mix? No they make a beeline for the warm comfort foods of chips, potato cakes and spring rolls conveniently provided by vendors trading on the platform. Imagine if that is a regular occurrence, people tucking into grease and matter formerly known as potato on their way home for dinner. This would not happen if the trains ran reliably on time. Commuters would not have time to be tempted by seductive, calorie-filled snacks.

But not only do commuters have to endure poor service, they also have to pay a premium for the privilege. With costs entering double figures for all day tickets in some states, it no wonder that some commuters have to make savings in other areas, such as food. Unfortunately some of the cheapest food is also the unhealthiest. I’m not just talking about the all you can eat at Smorgy’s or the $10 pot and parma, it’s the replacing of prime cuts of meat with mince, cutting out fresh vegetables because of their price and eating Kraft Singles instead of cheese. No should have to endure that.

So what’s the answer? Cycling is a potential option. You would certainly lose weight, both through the exercise and the stress of almost getting killed on a daily basis. The Baillieu Government have managed to reduce slow public transport usage in Victoria for the first time since the early 1990s by limiting spending on rail and cutting jobs, so it appears Ted is also worried by public transport induced weight gain. The answer may simply be that people need to make better food choices. But better public transport would definitely be a good thing.

Mid-week roundup

More fun and games in Canberra, with mining magnate
Clive Palmer announcing both his plans to run for
parliament and the construction of the Titanic II. 

Business as usual this week in Canberra, with more media attention being given to scandal and rumour than to analysis of policy, or for that matter anything else. The suspension of MP’s Craig Thompson and Peter Slipper for their alleged misdemeanours (can’t believe there hasn’t been a “gate” suffix added yet to describe the scandals) dominated early in the week, with calls again made for the removal of Julia Gillard from office. It seems odd to me that the same people shocked by the idea of removing one prime minister, would be so in favour removing another. Fortunately for those not interested in the “revelations” that politicians are disingenuous and morally bankrupt, Slipper-gate at least (there I did it) has been put on the backburner following the discovery that Liberal MP Christopher Pyne had been in contact with Mr Slippers accuser before the allegations were made.

The ALP gained further respite this week following the surprisingly large interest rate cut on Tuesday. Something I don’t understand is why governments (not just the current one) claim, and are allowed to claim credit when interest rates drop, and conversely are attacked when they are raised.  The Reserve Bank of Australia monitors the official cash rate, and is of course independent of the Federal Government. Even more bizarrely, the cutting of interest rates is a sign of a struggling economy, so why does everyone express their relief? I don’t want to come across all Joe Hockey, but perhaps he was right in suggesting people should stop living beyond their means, especially when a new study suggests that we think we are entitled to more than we have. Labor were further aided this week, though not off their own bat, thanks to Tony Abbott’s eyebrow raising call for former mendicant state WA to receive a greater share of GST revenue, and by Indonesian government officials for slamming the Coalition’s immigration policy as “arrogant” and “rigid”.

It seems to me that neither party at the moment really has to do anything to put its opponent under pressure, they are more than capable of doing it to themselves whenever they opening their mouths.

State political journalists had their day in the sun this week with the release of the Victorian State Budget. In the typical style of the Baillieu Government, it was mostly inoffensive, yet is unlikely to do anybody any real good. The main sore points were the axing of more public sector jobs and the slashing of education funding. The public service is a bit of a free target for governments, with the response to the cutting of more than 4000 jobs barely ripple compared to the reaction following losses of smaller numbers from the manufacturing industry. There is a worthy increase in the funding for vulnerable children, as well as the usual funding for infrastructure (read roads). Everything else is pretty much as you were. Of course what must be noted is that the state is facing a period of, in not recession, slow economic growth and falling revenue somewhat limited Treasurer Kim Wells, as did the government’s unshakable commitment to producing a surplus. State governments never really worried about budget surpluses or deficits according to Prof Brian Costar, but it apparently now has become an electoral issue. I tend to agree; I’d much rather a government spend our money to improve our lives, even to the point of running a deficit, rather than have a government take austere measures and increase traffic fines just to balance the books. The Baillieu Government has been described as a “do nothing government” as this budget does nothing to change that impression.

But while analysts and political reporters were going over the budget with a fine-tooth comb, Melburnians were discussing a far more serious issue: footy. It five rounds in, at the natives are starting to get restless. The big issues again this week were the Match Review Panel and the standard of the football broadcast on Channel Seven. The weekly lottery of suspensions, reprimands and no charges included Geelong star Joel Selwood in a friendly exchange with Lion Andrew Raines, his brother Scott as a victim and an apparent case of false charges against Saint Leigh Montagna.  The most controversial was the Selwood-Raines exchange, with Selwood no charged with landing the first blow, while Raines was suspended for returning fire. When added to Daniel Jackson suspension for an apparently legitimate bump on Scott Selwood, some cynics (me included) suggested that the Selwood’s were a protected species in the AFL. The AFL’s overruling of the ‘independent’ review panels decision to suspend Montagna completed this week’s circus.  On the broadcasting front, I won’t say much; I’ll leave it to Rohan Connolly and the legion of commenters. But here are some examples of what the coverage used to be like. What I think is left unsaid though is that Melburnians again are uncomfortable with the idea of two non-Victorian clubs at the top of the ladder. Not that they’d admit to it. What they say instead is that they are now “credible” premiership chances, or we now “have to take them seriously”. It makes me wonder why we bothered with a national competition.

One final thing I’ll round off on is the latest worldwide figures regarding sporting club's wealth and attendance figures. The AFL ranked 3^rd for average attendance, which I think is remarkable given the size of Australia’s population, and the much larger finances of other clubs and leagues around the world.