Contenders or Pretenders?

The 2012 AFL season is one of the most open in recent years, certainly the most open this decade. While this has no doubt breathed new life into a competition that has for the last few years been slightly predictable, it has also given rise to a new generation of what is known as April contenders. For those not familiar with the concept, the April contender is a team that, either by the media, bookies or themselves, has been anointed as a favourite for the premiership. At the season’s start that favourite was Hawthorn and over the course of just six rounds a plethora of other teams has jostled to grab that mantle. Perhaps what is needed is to take a step back and have a look at whether these teams’ credentials are genuine, or whether these teams are in fact April pretenders.

It's not all going to plan for the Hawks

Despite not making it to the big dance last year, Hawthorn was probably the second best team of season 2011. Therefore they were a logical choice for punters, especially following the retirements of a number of Geelong stars from its premiership team. Victory over Collingwood in the first round only served to confirm their favouritism for the flag in 2012. However with a 3-3 record after six rounds, they have had to relinquish that claim to favouritism. The Hawks have a huge reliance on two players, Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli, who although are two of the most freakishly gifted players in the AFL, are at best somewhat spasmodic. Hawthorn look brilliant when those two are on, but look pretty average when they are not. Classic girl with the curl syndrome. Status: Contenders, but behind the eight ball.

The Hawks passed flag favouritism onto Carlton after their victory over the Magpies in round three. The Blues responded with tepid performances against Essendon, Fremantle and the Giants, obviously finding the spotlight a bit too bright for the moment. But with only one loss from its opening six games it would be remarkable if the Blues did not make the finals and it’s hard to find a reason why they should not seriously challenge for a top four finish. It has taken a while, but perhaps Carlton, a few years after its claim, is finally coming. Status: Contender.

The only team to beat the Blues this season is Essendon. They have vaulted themselves into contender status with a 5-1 start to the season. The Dons fans are up and about, but I’m still a bit sceptical. The Bombers haven’t been super impressive other than in their win against Carlton, and have had a reasonably easy draw playing three of the bottom four teams from last year. This week’s match against the undefeated Eagles will be a better examination of their form. It’s also worth considering their lengthening injury list and also the way they faded late last season after a similar blistering start. Status: Pretender.

Does this ruin Sydney's chances?

Until last round, Sydney was one of the competition’s undefeated teams with their earlier win over Hawthorn in Tasmania seeming to stamp them as challengers this year. Boasting one of the AFL’s most improved players, Josh Kennedy, and one of the game’s all-time greats in rare form, the Swans were flying (I apologise for that). However, an injury to Adam Goodes exposed some real deficiencies up forward for the Swans, and with the injury likely to keep him out for much of the middle section of the season, it’s hard to see the Swans maintaining their form. Also the Swans have an awful record at the MCG, with just one win from their last 14 starts, something they will have to dramatically rectify if they are to be a threat in September. Status: Pretender.

One team that is generating a lot of buzz, especially in Adelaide, is the Crows. Last weeks win over Sydney has suddenly caused a raise in the profile and expectations of Adelaide, particularly on the eastern seaboard. With a dream draw and a genuine home ground advantage the Crows should challenge for the top four, although whether they are one of the top four most talented teams in the AFL is another question. Their midfield is young and as yet have not strung together a full consistent season, neither has their two tall targets up forward, Kurt Tippett and Taylor Walker. Their defence is also a bit of a concern, and will get a thorough test when they go up against teams with dangerous talls, such as West Coast or Geelong. Status: Pretender, contender in a few years.

West Coast shapes as the team
to beat this season

The last three teams that must be mentioned are the other top four teams from 2011. There is little doubt that West Coast is a legitimate contender, as the only undefeated team in the competition. They appear unfazed by a number of injuries to key players and are nearly unbeatable at home, with or without umpire assistance. A top four finish ensures a home final, which would just about ensure a ticket to the big dance for the Eagles. Of last year’s grand finalists, I’m reserving my judgment. Both are just one game out of the top four, but without either playing anywhere near their best of the last few seasons. The Magpies are grappling with a number of key injuries, not to mention a new coach, while Geelong appear finally to be slowing down due to retirements and an ageing list. While it’s unlikely they will both make the top four, they will definitely have a say in the make up of the finals and my prediction is there will be a time this season when one of them is considered a real chance for the premiership.

Who can say how the season will pan out, but one thing that is for sure is that if I sat down to write this same time next week, it would be a different set of April contenders and pretenders.